DONG Zhen,JIN Shizhu*.Prediction research on Bohai Kingdom ruins in Yanbian area based on the logic regression model[J].Journal of Yanbian University,2015,41(02):179-184.
基于Logistic回归模型的延边地区渤海国遗址预测研究
- Title:
- Prediction research on Bohai Kingdom ruins in Yanbian area based on the logic regression model
- 关键词:
- 遗址; 渤海国; Logistic回归模型; 预测模型; 延边地区
- 分类号:
- K878
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 以延边地区的渤海国遗址为研究对象,借助GIS软件获取同遗址分布相关的高程、坡度、坡向、与河流之间的距离、与村屯之间的距离等因素值,利用Logistic回归模型建立延边地区渤海国遗址预测模型,并分析预测结果.结果表明:预测模型的预测准确率达89.7%,采用自然分裂法(Jenks)分级的高概率区面积占研究区域的14.7%.高概率区具有靠近河流分布的特点,主要分布在海兰江流域、布尔哈通河流域、嘎呀河流域、牡丹江流域、图们江干流流域等.高概率区相对比重高的地区有龙井、图们、延吉、珲春等县市,而高概率区绝对比重高的
- Abstract:
- We aim to establish a forecasting model to analyze the predicting results on the Bohai Kingdom ruins in Yanbian area by using logic regression model, which gets the value of height, gradient, slope aspect, the distance from the river, and the distance from village by using the GIS. The results show that the accuracy of the prediction model reaches to 89.7%, and the highly probability region of the whole study area is 14.7% by using Jenks classification method. The results show that the distribution of the highly probability region is always near the river, which are Hailan River Basin, Buerhatong River Basin, Gaya River Basin, Mudan River Basin, Tumen River Basin etc. The highly relatively proportion of high probability region includes Longjing, Tumen, Yanji, Hunchun etc. And the highly absolutely proportion of highly probability region includes Dunhua, Wangqing, Hunchun, Longjing, Antu etc. The research result has significant influencing on improving the efficiency in archeology work in Bohai Kingdom.
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备注/Memo
收稿日期: 2015-04-26 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41161025)*通信作者: 金石柱(1968—),男,博士,教授,研究方向为历史文化地理学与区域地理.